The Plausibility of Future Scenarios
Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning
What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.
Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
Kapitel-Übersicht
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Frontmatter
Seiten 1 - 4 -
Content
Seiten 5 - 8 -
List of Figures
Seiten 9 - 10 -
List of Tables
Seiten 11 - 12 -
Summary of the book
Seiten 13 - 16 -
1 Introduction
Seiten 17 - 26 -
2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues
Seiten 27 - 56 -
3 Scenario plausibility: emerging debates in research and practice
Seiten 57 - 72 -
4 Conceptual explorations: plausibility across disciplines
Seiten 73 - 116 -
5 Empirical research: Methodology to study scenario plausibility
Seiten 117 - 136 -
6 Experimental study: quantitative research findings
Seiten 137 - 170 -
7 Experimental study: qualitative research findings
Seiten 171 - 192 -
8 Synthesis: A conceptual map of scenario plausibility
Seiten 193 - 214 -
9 Conclusions and outlook
Seiten 215 - 224 -
Abbreviations
Seiten 225 - 226 -
Acknowledgments
Seiten 227 - 228 -
References
Seiten 229 - 264
22. Juli 2020, 264 Seiten
ISBN: 978-3-8376-5319-9
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